Remaining Tuesday (March 10, 2026) night time, the skies above Erbil — the capital of Iraq’s independent Kurdistan Area — flashed with the streaks of air defence interceptors. Consistent with Erbil’s governor, a minimum of 17 drones focused town in one night time, triggering sirens and sending citizens scrambling indoors — a stark reminder that one of the vital West Asia’s maximum strong corners is now being drawn right into a widening regional disagreement.
Particles crashed right into a civilian house close to the US consulate and landed as regards to a big public venue. Northern Iraq’s independent Kurdish area, which hosts a number of Iranian Kurdish opposition teams, has noticed a slew of such assaults for the reason that warfare in what officers describe as a unexpectedly escalating marketing campaign within the area.
In the most recent assault, a couple of explosions on Monday (March 16, 2026) night time rocked Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, with a minimum of 4 individuals killed in an air strike on a development utilized by an Iran-backed staff, and drone moves focused on the US Embassy. The fatal assault in Baghdad’s Jadriyah district adopted the sound of an explosion from close to the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad’s closely fortified Inexperienced Zone early on Tuesday (March 17, 2026).
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The moves hitting the area now come from a couple of instructions: Iranian missile assaults focused on Kurdish opposition teams based totally in northern Iraq, drone moves by way of Iran-aligned militias focused on U.S. bases, and retaliatory operations connected to the widening disagreement between Tehran and Washington.
Kurdish lawmakers in Baghdad warn that the government’s muted reaction dangers additional destabilising the rustic. Civilian spaces have additionally been affected: amongst the ones wounded in fresh moves had been a supply driving force in Erbil, a nurse in a camp close to Koya, and a kid within the Qalawa neighbourhood of Sulaimaniyah, heightening nervousness amongst citizens who had lengthy appeared the Kurdistan Area as a relative shelter from the violence affecting the remainder of Iraq.
Since February 28, when the US and Israel intensified their assault on Iran, the Kurdistan Area has persisted 307 moves by way of the Islamic Modern Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated teams, killing 8 individuals and injuring 51, in line with Group Peacemaker Group-Iraqi Kurdistan, which screens actions and violations alongside the Iraq-Iran border.
“In addition to the loss of life, the attacks carried out by the IRGC, and its affiliated groups have caused damage to civilian homes, oil fields, telecommunications infrastructure, hotels, public spaces, and government and civil institutions,” mentioned Kamaran Osman, a member of the CPT Iraqi Kurdistan workforce. “During the past week alone, 21 civilian homes were hit by fragments of suicide drones and remnants of explosive ordnance.”
Some of the lifeless had been a safety worker at Erbil Global Airport, 4 Kurdish opponents connected to Iranian opposition teams, and a French soldier killed in a drone strike on a joint army base southwest of Erbil. The disagreement between Iran, the U.S. and Israel are increasingly more spilling throughout borders and dangerous to tug Iraq again right into a war it has struggled for years to flee.
‘Boots on ground’
Iranian Kurdish opposition teams have suffered casualties in the most recent wave of assaults. No less than 5 opponents from other Iranian Kurdish organisations were killed within the fresh assaults. Iranian Kurdish refugee camps and the army headquarters of Iranian Kurdish events within the Kurdistan Area had been focused 43 instances, in line with CPT.
Northern Iraq has lengthy served as a sanctuary for Iranian Kurdish dissidents. A number of organisations, together with the Democratic Birthday celebration of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Unfastened Existence Birthday celebration (PJAK), Komala Birthday celebration of Iranian Kurdistan, Komala Birthday celebration of the Toilers of Kurdistan, PAK and Khabat, take care of armed camps, political workplaces and refugee camps within the area.
On February 22, six of those teams introduced the formation of the Alliance of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, an umbrella coalition opposing the Iranian govt, a unprecedented transfer given their longstanding war of words.
A few of these teams take care of armed wings and feature traditionally carried out operations towards Iranian forces within Iran’s Kurdish areas. In fresh weeks, hypothesis surfaced in Washington that such opponents may just probably play a task in a broader power marketing campaign towards Tehran.
U.S. President Donald Trump, at one level, steered it might be “wonderful” if Iranian Kurdish forces based totally in Iraq crossed into Iran to assault the regime, a commentary that alarmed Kurdish leaders and risked upsetting Tehran.
Mr. Trump later looked as if it would stroll again the recommendation, announcing the US didn’t wish to complicate the warfare additional. The Iranian Kurdish teams themselves have denied any coordinated function within the war thus far, at the same time as they continue to be goals of Iranian assaults.
U.S. involvement
The escalation is pulling U.S. forces in Iraq again into disagreement towards their previous adversary: Iran-backed Shia militias that battled U.S. forces right through the years following the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Militias allied with Tehran have introduced dozens of drone and rocket assaults on American goals, together with amenities close to Erbil Global Airport, a base utilized by U.S. forces at Harir, or even the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.
Consistent with CPT, right through the previous week, consulates, army bases, and amenities attached to the U.S. govt within the Kurdistan Area had been focused 39 instances, bringing the overall collection of such assaults to 97 for the reason that get started of the war. Condemning the assaults, Iraqi High Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani described them as a “terrorist act” performed by way of “rogue groups”.
For years, the U.S. sought to wind down its army involvement within the nation, however the most recent assault may just alternate issues at the floor. Iran holds deep affect within the nation via Shia political events and armed factions jointly referred to as the Well-liked Mobilisation Forces (PMF), whilst the US nonetheless holds vital leverage via safety cooperation, financial ties and closing troop presence.
The widening war may be threatening to attract world troops: a drone remaining week additionally struck a joint Peshmerga-French army base at Mala Qara, about 60 km southwest of Erbil, killing a French soldier and injuring six others. France, which helps to keep troops within the Kurdistan Area as a part of the world coalition that continues coaching native forces, referred to as the strike “unacceptable.”
Expanding tensions
Tensions between Erbil and Baghdad also are expanding over oil exports and monetary controls.
Kurdish leaders have referred to as for pressing discussion to unravel the rising political and financial dispute after Baghdad proposed exporting as much as 3,00,000 barrels in line with day in the course of the Kurdistan pipeline to Turkiye’s Ceyhan port.
The Kurdistan Regional Executive (KRG), on the other hand, has accused Iraq of implementing what it describes as a “suffocating embargo” by way of limiting Kurdish get right of entry to to greenbacks in the course of the ASYCUDA customs gadget, a monetary lever that may impact the KRG’s oil exports and revenues, and failing to stop assaults by way of Iran-aligned teams. Iraqi political blocs rejected their call for, insisting that oil exports stay a federal authority underneath Baghdad.
Oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan Area stay in large part stalled, with power amenities again and again focused by way of drone and missile moves, additional disrupting already fragile power infrastructure. Iraq introduced on Monday that it’s going to start exporting oil without delay from Kirkuk to Turkiye, bypassing the Kurdistan Area.
For Iraq, whose economic system is dependent closely on oil exports, a chronic war dangers disrupting power exports and deepening the rustic’s already fragile political divisions and financial tensions.
Stuck within the midst
On Monday (March 16, 2026) night time, a drone struck the Al-Rasheed Lodge, some of the high-profile lodges recognized to host dignitaries frequently, in central Baghdad. Eyewitnesses captured flames and thick smoke billowing from the higher flooring of the landmark development, in one of the vital greatest assaults at the Iraqi capital for the reason that warfare started. Iraq’s former Deputy Minister Hoshyar Zebari referred to as it an “all-out war” by way of Iraqi militias. “Tonight attacks on Al Rashid Hotel in Baghdad & U.S. Embassy in Green Zone in Baghdad and Victory base in BIAP plus attacks on Erbil mean an all-out war by the Iraqi militias to broaden the conflict and engulf the country in the current military conflict,” he wrote on X.
For many years, Iraq has served as a geopolitical crossroads the place regional and world actors compete for affect, a competition now taking part in out on its soil as soon as once more.
Tens of hundreds of opponents belonging to Iranian-aligned militias perform around the nation, whilst U.S. forces take care of a number of army amenities — many now concentrated within the Kurdistan Area.
Kurdish government have additionally stepped-up complaint of Baghdad’s reaction. Safeen Dizayee, head of the Kurdistan Regional Executive’s Division of International Members of the family, condemned what he described as armed forces drone moves focused on civilian and diplomatic websites within the area.
“We strongly condemn the militia drone attacks on the Kurdistan Region’s infrastructure and civilian sites, including the recent targeting of the UAE Consulate General in Erbil and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad,” Mr. Dizayee mentioned in a remark on Sunday, urging the government and safety forces to disarm the “lawless groups.”
Kurdistan Area High Minister Masrour Barzani additionally held a phone dialog with Tom Barrack, the US Ambassador to Turkiye and Particular Envoy for Syria, right through which each side condemned the hot assaults at the Kurdistan Area and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
Up to now, the war has noticed greater than 7,000 moves performed on Iranian goals by way of the US and Israel, in line with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), whilst Iran has replied by way of launching over 2,000 drones and 600 missiles. It has additionally begun to disrupt delivery in the course of the Strait of Hormuz, a very important chokepoint for world oil industry.
Anisha Dutta is a journalist based totally in New York
